How Likely Is a Tornado in Caldwell County, MO?
Caldwell County, MO: what NOAA's tornado record says
Caldwell County has recorded 11 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 6.9 years - our Low band. Put another way: Caldwell County sees more tornado activity than 31% of US counties. Within Missouri alone, Caldwell County ranks 107 of 115 counties for tornado frequency.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
1 tornado touching Caldwell County reached violent (EF4-5) strength since 1950. That single fact carries more weight for the shelter decision than the county's overall frequency band.
The dollar figure Caldwell County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Missouri has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Missouri this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
A direct hit is not required for Caldwell County to lose power - outbreak-wide outages across Missouri regularly reach homes and businesses well outside the actual tracks. A battery bank covers that gap without a generator's fuel and venting needs.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Caldwell County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 426 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Caldwell County has about 9,000 residents.