How Likely Is a Tornado in Erie County, NY?
How likely is a tornado in Erie County, NY?
Erie County has recorded 27 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 2.8 years - our Elevated band. Put another way: Erie County sees more tornado activity than 65% of US counties. Within New York alone, Erie County ranks 3 of 62 counties for tornado frequency.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
20 weak and 7 significant tornadoes make up Erie County's 27-track record - none violent. NOAA has never logged an EF4 or EF5 crossing this county.
The dollar figure Erie County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. New York has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for New York this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
A direct hit is not required for Erie County to lose power - outbreak-wide outages across New York regularly reach homes and businesses well outside the actual tracks. A battery bank covers that gap without a generator's fuel and venting needs.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Erie County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 1,043 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Erie County has about 950,602 residents.