How Likely Is a Tornado in Jasper County, IL?
Jasper County, IL: what NOAA's tornado record says
Jasper County has recorded 17 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 4.5 years - our Moderate band. Put another way: Jasper County sees more tornado activity than 44% of US counties. Among 102 Illinois counties in this dataset, Jasper County ranks 82 for how often a tornado touches down.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
1 tornado touching Jasper County reached violent (EF4-5) strength since 1950. That single fact carries more weight for the shelter decision than the county's overall frequency band.
The dollar figure Jasper County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Illinois has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Illinois this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
Power loss after a tornado outbreak in Illinois often reaches homes the storm itself never touched. A battery-backup unit covers the outage without the fuel and venting a generator needs.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Jasper County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 495 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Jasper County has about 9,092 residents.