How Likely Is a Tornado in Logan County, AR?
Logan County, AR: what NOAA's tornado record says
Logan County has recorded 29 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 2.6 years - our Elevated band. Put another way: Logan County sees more tornado activity than 67% of US counties. Among 75 Arkansas counties in this dataset, Logan County ranks 36 for how often a tornado touches down.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
1 tornado touching Logan County reached violent (EF4-5) strength since 1950. That single fact carries more weight for the shelter decision than the county's overall frequency band.
The dollar figure Logan County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Arkansas has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Arkansas this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
A direct hit is not required for Logan County to lose power - outbreak-wide outages across Arkansas regularly reach homes and businesses well outside the actual tracks. A battery bank covers that gap without a generator's fuel and venting needs.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Logan County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 709 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Logan County has about 21,457 residents.