How Likely Is a Tornado in Lucas County, IA?
Lucas County's tornado history, by the numbers
Lucas County has recorded 12 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 6.3 years - our Low band. Put another way: Lucas County sees more tornado activity than 33% of US counties. Iowa has 99 counties in this dataset; Lucas County ranks 99 of them by frequency.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
6 weak and 5 significant tornadoes make up Lucas County's 12-track record - none violent. NOAA has never logged an EF4 or EF5 crossing this county.
The dollar figure Lucas County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Iowa has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Iowa this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
8,758 people live in Lucas County, and a tornado outbreak's power loss usually reaches far more of Iowa than the tracks themselves touch. A portable battery unit is the faster, no-fuel way to bridge that outage.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Lucas County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 431 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Lucas County has about 8,758 residents.