How Likely Is a Tornado in McDonald County, MO?
McDonald County, MO: what NOAA's tornado record says
McDonald County has recorded 21 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 3.6 years - our Moderate band. Put another way: McDonald County sees more tornado activity than 52% of US counties. Among 115 Missouri counties in this dataset, McDonald County ranks 69 for how often a tornado touches down.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
16 weak and 5 significant tornadoes make up McDonald County's 21-track record - none violent. NOAA has never logged an EF4 or EF5 crossing this county.
The dollar figure McDonald County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Missouri has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Missouri this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
A direct hit is not required for McDonald County to lose power - outbreak-wide outages across Missouri regularly reach homes and businesses well outside the actual tracks. A battery bank covers that gap without a generator's fuel and venting needs.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on McDonald County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 539 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. McDonald County has about 24,054 residents.