How Likely Is a Tornado in Morris County, NJ?
How likely is a tornado in Morris County, NJ?
Morris County has recorded 9 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 8.5 years - our Low band. Put another way: Morris County sees more tornado activity than 27% of US counties. New Jersey has 21 counties in this dataset; Morris County ranks 13 of them by frequency.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
6 weak and 3 significant tornadoes make up Morris County's 9-track record - none violent. NOAA has never logged an EF4 or EF5 crossing this county.
The dollar figure Morris County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. New Jersey has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for New Jersey this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
The storm that misses Morris County outright can still take its power out - outbreak-scale outages across New Jersey are common well beyond the tracked path. A battery-backup unit handles that without a generator's setup or fuel.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Morris County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 461 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Morris County has about 523,053 residents.