How Likely Is a Tornado in Sullivan County, MO?
Sullivan County's tornado history, by the numbers
Sullivan County has recorded 12 tornado touches in NOAA's 76-year database, a rate of roughly one every 6.3 years - our Low band. Put another way: Sullivan County sees more tornado activity than 33% of US counties. Among 115 Missouri counties in this dataset, Sullivan County ranks 101 for how often a tornado touches down.
Beyond the frequency band: violent history
10 weak and 2 significant tornadoes make up Sullivan County's 12-track record - none violent. NOAA has never logged an EF4 or EF5 crossing this county.
The dollar figure Sullivan County's rating leads to
Cost nationally: $2,890-$13,280, about $7,645 typical. Missouri has no state rebate program confirmed here; FEMA's underlying 75% cost-share exists nationwide, but applying through a state program is what usually makes it real, and none was found for Missouri this pass.
What a direct hit isn't required for
The storm that misses Sullivan County outright can still take its power out - outbreak-scale outages across Missouri are common well beyond the tracked path. A battery-backup unit handles that without a generator's setup or fuel.
What this number is, and is not
One caveat before relying on Sullivan County's number: it is county-wide, and it covers about 648 square miles, so a single touch counts the same as one in a county a fraction of that size. Weaker pre-1990s tornadoes are also documented as undercounted in NOAA's own record. Sullivan County has about 5,750 residents.